Subject: Re: [AUDITORY] Natural experiment example needed From: Douglas Scott <jdmusictuition@xxxxxxxx> Date: Sat, 5 Apr 2025 09:07:10 -0400--000000000000417d6e063208887c Content-Type: text/plain; charset="UTF-8" Hi David I forgot to add a suggestion for a natural experiment, the problem would be data, but I wonder how reliable music sales are as a metric for this sort of thing. Maybe there was some signal in the form of a shift in genres as tastes? Incidentally, the uncertainty in water vapour feedback is one of the really big issues in that field. The absolute size of the effect of the water cycle feedback is enormous (the largest in the system by far), but even the sign of the net effect isn't known with any real confidence. Doug On Sat, 5 Apr 2025 at 00:35, Huron, David < 000003d54289e601-dmarc-request@xxxxxxxx> wrote: > In teaching research methods to music-psychology students, for years I > have illustrated a "natural experiment" by discussing how shutting down air > traffic in the aftermath of 9/11 allowed climate scientists to determine > the effect of aircraft vapor trails on earth's overall temperature. (Do > vapor trails cool the earth by blocking sunlight, or is the net effect to > warm the earth by blocking reflected surface heat from radiating into > space?) > > I'd like to have an updated example, preferably something we learned about > music or hearing arising from Covid isolation -- something students could > better relate to. > > Any suggestions? > > Cheers, > David Huron > > --000000000000417d6e063208887c Content-Type: text/html; charset="UTF-8" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable <div dir=3D"ltr"><div>Hi David</div><div><br></div>I forgot to add a sugges= tion for a natural experiment, the problem would be data, but I wonder how = reliable music sales are as a metric for this sort of thing. Maybe there wa= s some signal in the form of a shift in genres as tastes?<div><br></div><di= v>Incidentally, the uncertainty in water vapour feedback is one of the real= ly big issues=C2=A0in that field. The absolute size of the effect of the wa= ter cycle feedback is enormous (the largest in the system by far), but even= the sign of the net effect isn't known with any real confidence.</div>= <div><br></div><div>Doug</div></div><br><div class=3D"gmail_quote gmail_quo= te_container"><div dir=3D"ltr" class=3D"gmail_attr">On Sat, 5 Apr 2025 at 0= 0:35, Huron, David <<a href=3D"mailto:000003d54289e601-dmarc-request@xxxxxxxx= ts.mcgill.ca">000003d54289e601-dmarc-request@xxxxxxxx</a>> wrote:= <br></div><blockquote class=3D"gmail_quote" style=3D"margin:0px 0px 0px 0.8= ex;border-left:1px solid rgb(204,204,204);padding-left:1ex"><div class=3D"m= sg-7341732128347629754"> <div dir=3D"ltr"> <span style=3D"font-family:Aptos,Aptos_EmbeddedFont,Aptos_MSFontService,Cal= ibri,Helvetica,sans-serif;font-size:12pt;color:rgb(0,0,0)">In teaching rese= arch methods to music-psychology students, for years I have illustrated a &= quot;natural experiment" by discussing how shutting down air traffic in the aftermath of 9/11 allowed = climate scientists to determine the effect of aircraft vapor trails on eart= h's overall temperature. (Do vapor trails cool the earth by blocking su= nlight, or is the net effect to warm the earth by blocking reflected surface heat from radiating into space?)</= span> <div style=3D"font-family:Aptos,Aptos_EmbeddedFont,Aptos_MSFontService,Cali= bri,Helvetica,sans-serif;font-size:12pt;color:rgb(0,0,0)"> <br> </div> <div style=3D"font-family:Aptos,Aptos_EmbeddedFont,Aptos_MSFontService,Cali= bri,Helvetica,sans-serif;font-size:12pt;color:rgb(0,0,0)"> I'd like to have an updated example, preferably something we learned ab= out music or hearing arising from Covid isolation -- something students cou= ld better relate to.</div> <div style=3D"font-family:Aptos,Aptos_EmbeddedFont,Aptos_MSFontService,Cali= bri,Helvetica,sans-serif;font-size:12pt;color:rgb(0,0,0)"> <br> </div> <div style=3D"font-family:Aptos,Aptos_EmbeddedFont,Aptos_MSFontService,Cali= bri,Helvetica,sans-serif;font-size:12pt;color:rgb(0,0,0)"> Any suggestions?</div> <div style=3D"font-family:Aptos,Aptos_EmbeddedFont,Aptos_MSFontService,Cali= bri,Helvetica,sans-serif;font-size:12pt;color:rgb(0,0,0)"> <br> </div> <div style=3D"font-family:Aptos,Aptos_EmbeddedFont,Aptos_MSFontService,Cali= bri,Helvetica,sans-serif;font-size:12pt;color:rgb(0,0,0)"> Cheers,</div> <div style=3D"font-family:Aptos,Aptos_EmbeddedFont,Aptos_MSFontService,Cali= bri,Helvetica,sans-serif;font-size:12pt;color:rgb(0,0,0)"> David Huron</div> <div style=3D"font-family:Aptos,Aptos_EmbeddedFont,Aptos_MSFontService,Cali= bri,Helvetica,sans-serif;font-size:12pt;color:rgb(0,0,0)"> <br> </div> </div> </div></blockquote></div> --000000000000417d6e063208887c--